Source Field Book · external cost signals

The signals that move toy gross margin.

The outside costs that push toy margin around, pulled straight from public primary sources: resin, ocean freight, US tariffs, and toy-sector filings. Each card carries a real figure, a trend, an "as of" date, how often it refreshes, and a source you can tap. Tap any source to check the number yourself.

Public data only. No client-confidential figures. Verified 28 Jun 2026.

01 · Raw material

Polypropylene / plastics resin · US PPI

Resin producer prices

Monthly
377.7 PPI index ▲ ~14% MoM

As of May 2026 (released 11 Jun 2026) · +18% year-over-year · Dec 1980 = 100, not seasonally adjusted

Companion spot read: North American polypropylene ≈ $1.48/kg (~$0.67/lb), Jun 2026, ▼ −0.7% MoM after a spring run-up (businessanalytiq). The spring 2026 spike was driven by a feedstock/propylene shock.

Why it matters to toy margin. PP and ABS resin is the primary raw material in injection-molded toys and a major share of COGS. A ~14% one-month, ~18% one-year jump in US resin producer prices compresses gross margin on plastic toys unless it is passed through to retail price.

FRED / BLS series PCU325211325211 renders in browser; blocks automated fetch · value cross-read via ycharts + Trading Economics

02 · Ocean freight

Drewry World Container Index · composite

Container freight rate

Weekly
$4,166 / 40ft container ▲ +5% w/w

As of week ending 25 Jun 2026 · highest level since September 2024 (a 22-month high) · published every Thursday

Lane detail: Shanghai→LA +12% to $5,750/FEU; Shanghai→NY +6% to $7,149/FEU. The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) global read sat near $3,427/FEU the same week; the two indices weight lanes differently, so they diverge.

Why it matters to toy margin. Ocean freight is a direct landed-cost input, and toys are bulky and low value-density (a lot of cubic volume per dollar of goods), so container freight is an outsized share of toy landed cost. A 5% WCI jump compresses gross margin almost immediately unless price or sourcing offsets it.

Drewry WCI (primary) DCN dated cross-check

03 · US import tariffs

US reciprocal tariffs · key toy-sourcing countries

Landed-cost tariff add

Policy · event-driven
10% flat floor, most countries ▼ down from 19–20% deals

As of 28 Jun 2026 · valid through ~24 Jul 2026 (Section 122 sunset; rates likely to move at expiry)

What changed: On 20 Feb 2026 the US Supreme Court (Learning Resources v. Trump, 6–3) struck down the IEEPA "reciprocal" tariffs. They were replaced by a flat Section 122 tariff (10%, signaled toward a 15% statutory cap), effective 24 Feb 2026, applied uniformly, with a 150-day sunset. Section 301 (China), 232, and AD/CVD duties were not affected. Mattel's own FY2025 10-K flags this ruling and notes any refunds remain "highly uncertain."
China ~21–35%
Sec 301 + 122 stack
Vietnam 10%
flat 20%+40% deal struck down
Indonesia 10%
flat 19% deal struck down
Thailand 10%
flat 19% deal struck down
Malaysia 10%
flat 19% deal struck down
Mexico 0% / 10%
USMCA 0% non-compliant 10%, was 25%

Why it matters to toy margin. Tariffs are a direct add to landed cost on every imported toy, so the rate spread between countries drives sourcing. After the Feb 2026 ruling that spread collapsed: a flat 10% nearly everywhere, 0% for USMCA-compliant Mexico, and China still highest on its surviving Section 301 stack. The 10% floor is temporary; the ~24 Jul sunset is the key date to watch.

SCOTUS opinion CRS / Congress.gov White & Case (Sec 122 detail)
Deal-rate primaries (now legally void, kept for the record): White House · Indonesia 19% · USTR · Thailand 19% · USTR · Malaysia 19%.

04 · Toy-sector filings

Mattel FY2025 10-K · SEC EDGAR

Toy-maker gross margin

Quarterly / annual
48.7% GAAP gross margin ▼ from 50.8% FY2024

As of FY2025 (year ended 31 Dec 2025) · most recent quarter Q1 2026: 44.9% reported / 45.1% adjusted (vs 49.4% / 49.6% a year earlier)

Inside that COGS, from the same 10-K: freight and logistics $336.4M (+4% YoY); royalty expense $264.6M (+8% YoY). Mattel attributes the FY2025 gross-margin decline to ~100 bps of cost inflation, ~60 bps of FX, plus tariff timing. The trend arrow is red because margin fell (a cost signal), even though 48.7% is a high absolute level.

Why it matters to toy margin. This is the scoreboard the external signals above feed into. Toy gross margin is set by product cost plus royalties plus freight against retail price; a ~2-point annual drop, and a sharper ~450 bps quarterly drop, is exactly resin, freight, and tariffs showing up in a public filing.

Mattel FY2025 10-K Mattel Q1 2026 8-K

Public-filing comparison · FY2025

Mattel vs Hasbro

Annual
Mattel (MAT)
48.7% GAAP gross margin
Hasbro (HAS)
24.2% adj. operating margin
Honest caveat · not the same metric
Hasbro reports no gross-margin line; its cost-of-sales is defined more narrowly (royalties, product development, and program amortization sit on separate lines). So these are different metrics, shown each on the basis the company itself reports. Do not read it as "Mattel is twice as profitable."

Why it matters to toy margin. Both toy majors are public, so their filings are a free read on how the same external cost pressure lands on two cost structures. The takeaway is structural: Mattel discloses a gross margin you can track against resin and freight; Hasbro headlines an operating margin and absorbs royalties below the cost-of-sales line.

Mattel 10-K Hasbro FY2025 earnings

How this connects

Public sources, illustrative framing. Every figure on this page is real and traceable to the linked public source. The framing (which signals, how they map to toy margin) is illustrative for a supply-chain demo, not financial advice and not a Mattel forecast. Commodity and freight indices update daily to weekly; tariff status is policy- and event-driven; filings update quarterly. Re-pull before relying on any figure, especially the freight rate (fast-moving) and the tariff status (Section 122 sunset ~24 Jul 2026).
Feeds the rest of the Field Book These external signals are the inputs to the forecasting POC's cost scenarios (the "tariff shock" and "long-lead resin and freight" levers) and to the per-source margin exposure in the source profiles: a live resin or freight tick re-prices the landed-cost scenario, and the tariff spread tells you which source carries the exposure. Public comps in, scenario and per-source margin out.

Built for the Mattel Source Field Book · supply-chain consulting demo · public data only, zero client-confidential figures.
Sources verified 28 Jun 2026: FRED/BLS resin PPI · Drewry WCI · SCOTUS tariff opinion · Mattel & Hasbro SEC filings. Full receipts in README.md.

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